Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  17.3  17.1  17.4  16.3  20.4  19.6  20.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  36.0  38.5  33.5  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9  97.9  97.9 102.3 107.0 100.1 109.3 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   8.0   3.0  14.0  50.0  30.0  29.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.3%        8.5%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       12.4%       27.6%       20.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.4%       18.7%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.5%       18.7%       13.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       18.7%       13.3%
 45kt / 36h       14.3%       27.5%       20.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.7%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%       12.6%       10.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%        6.9%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%       10.6%        8.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 SH032024 231212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  17.3  17.1  17.4  16.3  20.4  19.6  20.9  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%