Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231212 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    147.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.6  16.9  18.0  21.1  21.7  28.3  29.3  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  24.0  22.0  20.0  41.0  41.7  81.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         92.9  92.9  95.1  97.3 102.0 102.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -22.0  -3.0   4.0  20.0  23.0  38.0  30.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0  15.0   5.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%        5.0%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h        9.7%       15.7%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        9.7%        9.5%        9.6%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%        9.5%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.9%        9.5%        8.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.6%       11.2%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        5.6%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        2.1%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        3.5%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 SH032024 231212 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    147.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.6  16.9  18.0  21.1  21.7  28.3  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0  15.0   5.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%