Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231212 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.9  16.8  18.3  18.3  26.2  27.6  36.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  21.0  26.0  22.0  61.3  31.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        102.9 102.9 107.3 112.0 107.3 112.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  23.0  21.0  20.0  15.0  36.0  25.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   6.0  13.0  14.0  11.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.6%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.4%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        4.8%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.4%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.9%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%        2.5%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 SH032024 231212 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.9  16.8  18.3  18.3  26.2  27.6  36.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   6.0  13.0  14.0  11.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%