Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231212 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  16.7  18.7  21.4  17.7  25.9  28.7  34.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  26.0  41.0  36.3  64.8  50.0  72.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        107.9 112.3 114.6 114.6 107.9 112.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  21.0  20.0  18.0  21.0  17.0  29.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   4.0  12.0   6.0  10.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.3%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        4.9%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        2.8%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%        2.6%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 SH032024 231212 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  16.7  18.7  21.4  17.7  25.9  28.7  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   4.0  12.0   6.0  10.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%