Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231213 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.2  15.8  14.7  17.6  22.8  24.9  28.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0   6.0  41.0  45.3  54.0  31.0  78.0  48.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        104.6 107.0 107.0 102.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  42.0  29.0  29.0  38.0  25.0  55.0  59.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%       11.7%       12.0%
 25kt / 24h       24.1%       43.0%       33.6%
 30kt / 24h       20.1%       33.3%       26.7%
 35kt / 24h       15.4%       33.3%       24.4%
 40kt / 24h       15.4%       33.3%       24.4%
 45kt / 36h       23.1%       39.5%       31.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.2%       11.1%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%       23.8%       19.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.4%       11.7%       10.0%
 65kt / 72h       18.0%       16.2%       17.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 SH032024 231213 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.2  15.8  14.7  17.6  22.8  24.9  28.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%