Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231213 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.1  17.2  16.5  26.7  25.6  31.5  25.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  16.0  38.0  43.3  54.0  68.0  81.0 102.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        104.3 104.3 102.0  99.6 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  24.0  17.0  31.0  20.0  20.0  47.0  55.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0   3.0  15.0   6.0  14.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.7%       24.6%       28.1%
 25kt / 24h       41.1%       59.5%       50.3%
 30kt / 24h       37.2%       53.4%       45.3%
 35kt / 24h       32.5%       53.4%       42.9%
 40kt / 24h       29.7%       53.4%       41.5%
 45kt / 36h       28.4%       44.1%       36.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.1%       13.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.0%       24.5%       19.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%       10.7%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%       12.1%       10.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 SH032024 231213 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.1  17.2  16.5  26.7  25.6  31.5  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0   3.0  15.0   6.0  14.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%