Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231213 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  17.5  16.3  25.2  20.9  35.5  26.7  30.4  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  38.0  44.8  51.7  65.3  79.0  86.0  97.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        115.0 114.3 109.6 107.3 114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  15.0  27.0  38.0  17.0  43.0  48.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   2.0   8.0   8.0  11.0   5.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.6%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       14.1%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        7.3%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        6.9%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.9%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%        8.5%        6.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        6.2%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        1.3%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       12.1%        4.0%        8.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 SH032024 231213 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  17.5  16.3  25.2  20.9  35.5  26.7  30.4  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   2.0   8.0   8.0  11.0   5.0   8.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%