Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    143.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  19.3  16.0  19.3  29.2  20.9  21.7  18.7  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  54.0  54.0  83.0  79.0  84.0  90.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  16.0  -7.0  17.0  35.0  38.0  32.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  73.0  67.0  72.0  75.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   8.0   1.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.1%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        7.0%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%        7.0%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        2.3%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       43.6%       16.3%       29.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 SH032024 231214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    143.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  19.3  16.0  19.3  29.2  20.9  21.7  18.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  73.0  67.0  72.0  75.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   8.0   1.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%