Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    143.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  13.1  16.8  27.7  18.6  22.5  15.8  21.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  68.0  68.0  53.0  87.0  87.0  93.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  -7.0  17.0  40.0  33.0  41.0  43.0  -1.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.4%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       10.1%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%        9.5%        9.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        3.7%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h       45.5%       25.2%       35.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 SH032024 231214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    143.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  13.1  16.8  27.7  18.6  22.5  15.8  21.8  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%