Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    143.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  20.6  27.5  25.3  21.2  19.8  17.6  20.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  60.0  83.0  68.0  89.0  90.0  86.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0   5.0  35.0  26.0  50.0  39.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   5.0   6.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%       11.2%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       14.1%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h       13.9%       11.6%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%        4.9%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h       47.5%       27.2%       37.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 SH032024 231214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90    143.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  20.6  27.5  25.3  21.2  19.8  17.6  20.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   5.0   6.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%