Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231215 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  25.6  26.6  22.5  23.1  18.6  22.1  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  83.0  83.0  27.0  91.0  89.0  84.0  92.0  N  N  N  U  F  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  45.0  50.0  39.0  40.0  37.0  25.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  65.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       10.3%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       15.2%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       12.1%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        6.0%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h       53.3%       29.1%       41.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 SH032024 231215 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  25.6  26.6  22.5  23.1  18.6  22.1  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  65.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%