Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231215 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  28.1  25.8  22.1  22.4  17.7  25.9  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  83.0  69.0  26.0  53.0  76.0  62.0  82.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  46.0  47.0  57.0  51.0  40.0   5.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        8.6%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       11.5%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       10.1%       10.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%        4.9%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h       36.6%       18.4%       27.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 SH032024 231215 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  28.1  25.8  22.1  22.4  17.7  25.9  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%