Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231215 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  20.4  23.2  26.8  18.6  22.4  24.0  34.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  69.0  27.0  72.0  79.0  85.0  91.0  79.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  53.0  62.0  38.0  32.0   6.0  11.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  60.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%       11.2%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.1%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.1%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       17.5%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%       11.9%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h       11.3%        7.0%        9.2%
 65kt / 72h       44.8%       23.4%       34.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.22

 SH032024 231215 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  20.4  23.2  26.8  18.6  22.4  24.0  34.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  60.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%