Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    142.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  22.4  25.8  24.3  19.0  19.9  25.1  30.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  75.0  13.0  27.0  14.0  75.0  28.0  87.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  62.0  68.0  35.0  35.0  30.0  37.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       12.3%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.2%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.6%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.6%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       17.9%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%       11.5%       10.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        6.6%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h       24.1%       19.0%       21.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.26

 SH032024 231215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    142.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  22.4  25.8  24.3  19.0  19.9  25.1  30.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%