Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  26.5  23.9  19.7  25.3  29.1  38.1  42.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  23.0  29.0  35.0  51.0  43.0  82.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  44.0  35.0  30.0  19.0  37.0  34.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.5%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       11.9%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        5.4%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h       12.2%        7.7%       10.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 SH032024 231216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  26.5  23.9  19.7  25.3  29.1  38.1  42.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%