Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042024 231231 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.40 39.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.8 21.6 25.1 31.2 42.6 46.7 54.1 48.4 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 26.0 22.0 26.0 5.0 51.0 17.0 0.0 U U U U U N U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 111.5 105.5 F F F F F F N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 80.0 56.0 60.0 77.0 40.0 82.0 8.0 7.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 62.0 65.0 60.0 64.0 61.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -5.0 -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 -11.0 -8.0 F F F N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.0% 8.1% 6.6% 25kt / 24h 19.5% 40.8% 30.1% 30kt / 24h 9.3% 23.4% 16.3% 35kt / 24h 7.1% 23.4% 15.2% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 23.0% 12.3% 45kt / 36h 5.8% 31.7% 18.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 13.4% 6.7% 55kt / 48h 2.9% 8.4% 5.7% 70kt / 48h 0.7% 5.5% 3.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 3.2% 1.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 SH042024 231231 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.40 39.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.8 21.6 25.1 31.2 42.6 46.7 54.1 48.4 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 62.0 65.0 60.0 64.0 61.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -5.0 -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 -11.0 -8.0 U U U N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%