Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042024 231231 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.7  19.1  22.3  26.1  44.2  45.2  57.8  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  26.0  29.0  30.0  58.0  24.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7  96.2  86.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  27.0  39.0  39.0  46.0  45.0  54.0  78.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   4.0  -1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.7%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       28.1%       18.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%       14.3%        9.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       14.0%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       14.0%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       29.3%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.4%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%        9.7%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        5.1%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        2.2%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 SH042024 231231 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.7  19.1  22.3  26.1  44.2  45.2  57.8  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   4.0  -1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%