Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042024 240101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     40.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  25.0  30.0  35.7  40.5  40.5  40.5  40.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  28.0  10.0  64.0  21.3   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 122.3 122.3 122.3 122.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  79.0  51.0  31.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.8%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       18.0%       11.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        8.0%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        7.2%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.2%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       11.2%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.3%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 SH042024 240101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     40.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  25.0  30.0  35.7  40.5  40.5  40.5  40.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%