Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042024 240101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30     42.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  29.2  34.6  34.4  37.8  31.2  38.3  33.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  59.0  31.5   4.0  28.0  29.0  30.0  16.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 110.1 107.9 120.0 120.0 120.0 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  57.0  65.0  45.0  59.0  33.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  68.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   6.0   6.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0 -10.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%       12.2%       11.7%
 25kt / 24h       20.2%       35.9%       28.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%       23.4%       16.9%
 35kt / 24h       10.3%       23.4%       16.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       21.1%       11.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%       27.2%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.3%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        8.8%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.6%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        5.7%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 SH042024 240101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30     42.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  29.2  34.6  34.4  37.8  31.2  38.3  33.5  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  68.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   6.0   6.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0 -10.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%