Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042024 240101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.50     42.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  36.4  38.9  37.0  42.1  39.7  41.2  41.8  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  51.0  37.0  23.0  26.0  21.0  16.0   9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 109.3  97.9 104.6 107.0 102.3  93.6  83.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  60.0  55.0  94.0  42.0  44.0  26.0  29.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0  -2.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0  -6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%        8.8%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.2%       27.1%       23.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       16.7%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.5%       16.7%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       15.2%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       12.6%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 SH042024 240101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.50     42.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  36.4  38.9  37.0  42.1  39.7  41.2  41.8  N  F  F  F VF  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0  -2.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0  -6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%