Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042024 240101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40     43.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  37.5  35.6  42.9  51.5  56.4  66.3  81.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  33.0  15.0  22.0  17.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0  91.5  95.7 102.3  91.5  72.7  64.6  40.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  73.0  85.0  74.0  39.0  41.0  36.0   7.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  60.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%        7.4%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        3.0%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.8%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 SH042024 240101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40     43.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  37.5  35.6  42.9  51.5  56.4  66.3  81.3  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  60.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%