Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042024 240102 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.40 44.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.5 33.8 37.3 39.0 44.4 47.3 52.3 62.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 4.0 15.0 24.0 12.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.7 86.2 107.9 114.6 95.5 82.7 71.5 54.3 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 92.0 47.0 32.0 65.0 45.0 27.0 28.0 N F N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 67.0 65.0 68.0 63.0 66.0 61.0 52.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -5.0 -7.0 -7.0 -6.0 -23.0 -9.0 -24.0 N F F F F VF F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 SH042024 240102 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.40 44.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.5 33.8 37.3 39.0 44.4 47.3 52.3 62.2 F F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 67.0 65.0 68.0 63.0 66.0 61.0 52.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -5.0 -7.0 -7.0 -6.0 -23.0 -9.0 -24.0 N U U U U VU U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%