Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042024 240102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.5  42.1  49.1  49.3  52.0  75.3  77.6  91.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 105.5  94.4  87.7  63.2  47.4  40.4  40.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  35.0  72.0  60.0  39.0  -3.0  15.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  65.0  68.0  66.0  59.0  50.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -8.0  -9.0 -15.0 -19.0  -4.0  -4.0  10.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.14

 SH042024 240102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.