Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042024 240103 00UTC Storm Located at : -22.90 50.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 80.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.1 52.1 51.8 56.5 63.7 77.7 78.5 79.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.0 84.4 77.7 64.4 40.0 29.1 28.4 33.4 N N N U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 70.0 73.0 46.0 4.0 35.0 4.0 -8.0 N N N N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 61.0 57.0 56.0 48.0 38.0 39.0 39.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -5.0 -27.0 -21.0 -18.0 -11.0 8.0 0.0 F F VF VF VF F U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 0.7% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.56 SH042024 240103 00UTC Storm Located at : -22.90 50.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.