Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042024 240103 06UTC Storm Located at : -23.40 50.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.9 52.9 55.2 54.3 72.3 69.8 88.3 91.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.4 82.7 68.0 54.8 41.6 35.4 32.7 32.7 N N U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 69.0 61.0 36.0 5.0 34.0 -8.0 -7.0 N N N N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 58.0 51.0 39.0 37.0 33.0 32.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -21.0 -34.0 -21.0 -19.0 -13.0 9.0 4.0 F VF VF VF VF VF U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.92 SH042024 240103 06UTC Storm Located at : -23.40 50.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.