Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042024 240103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.20     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.0  56.3  50.3  61.9  68.3  71.5  79.8  81.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  73.0  60.9  53.7  43.4  39.7  43.4  46.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  61.0  40.0  16.0  33.0  11.0  -2.0  -9.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  46.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -31.0 -24.0 -22.0 -17.0  -5.0 -11.0   4.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.28

 SH042024 240103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.20     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.