Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042024 240103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.20     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.1  55.8  60.9  71.6  62.5  81.6  83.5  94.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.8  59.8  54.7  47.4  41.9  40.4  42.6  47.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  56.0  26.0  25.0  31.0  11.0 -16.0 -17.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  53.0  51.0  44.0  39.0  37.0  36.0  31.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -23.0 -11.0 -27.0 -12.0 -10.0 -14.0  -1.0 VF VF  F VF  F  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.56

 SH042024 240103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -25.20     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.