Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042024 240104 12UTC Storm Located at : -29.10 57.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 75.4 69.2 65.4 65.5 82.3 83.6 96.5 95.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.2 41.2 39.7 41.2 45.0 44.2 40.4 42.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 13.0 19.0 13.0 -4.0 -10.0 -27.0 -12.0 U U U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 44.0 46.0 46.0 50.0 44.0 44.0 43.0 U VU VU VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -30.0 -26.0 -9.0 0.0 -5.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 VF VF F N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.32 SH042024 240104 12UTC Storm Located at : -29.10 57.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.