Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042024 240104 18UTC Storm Located at : -29.60 59.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 66.4 63.2 57.5 67.1 66.9 83.1 91.9 87.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 42.6 41.2 44.2 49.1 50.9 44.2 49.1 45.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 7.0 10.0 21.0 9.0 -4.0 9.0 -24.0 U U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 47.0 44.0 45.0 52.0 48.0 48.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -31.0 -9.0 -13.0 -9.0 -11.0 0.0 -1.0 7.0 VF F VF F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.48 SH042024 240104 18UTC Storm Located at : -29.60 59.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.