Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062024 240120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  32.5  30.5  27.3  32.1  28.0  19.1  17.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  36.0  35.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6  90.7  90.7  92.9  92.9  95.1  95.1  92.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   2.0  19.0  -1.0   7.0  26.0  11.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  47.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        2.6%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        9.0%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        4.6%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        4.4%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        4.3%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        4.7%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        1.8%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 SH062024 240120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  32.5  30.5  27.3  32.1  28.0  19.1  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  47.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%