Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062024 240120 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  23.6  22.2  21.0  20.1  16.5  16.1  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  43.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  76.5  78.6  78.6  80.7  87.3  95.0  95.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -6.0  26.0  22.0   5.0   5.0  16.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  49.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  47.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        1.6%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        5.8%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        3.1%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        2.9%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        2.9%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        2.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.7%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%        1.4%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH062024 240120 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  23.6  22.2  21.0  20.1  16.5  16.1  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  49.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  47.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%