Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH062024 240120 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00     92.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  25.2  27.1  30.2  23.4  19.1  16.7  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  34.0  34.0  35.0  35.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.9  82.9  82.9  82.9  82.9  85.1  82.9  82.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   5.0  19.0  26.0  14.0  11.0  -4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  53.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        2.9%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%        7.3%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        3.7%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%        3.7%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%        3.7%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        2.5%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        0.9%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 SH062024 240120 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.00     92.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  25.2  27.1  30.2  23.4  19.1  16.7  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  53.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%