Rapid Intensification Guidance SH062024 240131 12UTC Storm Located at : -34.20 87.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 102.0 119.6 119.6 119.6 119.6 119.6 119.6 119.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 7.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 41.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.88 SH062024 240131 12UTC Storm Located at : -34.20 87.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.