Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240123 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  24.4  27.6  31.2  28.3  27.7  17.2  23.1  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  52.0  37.0  32.0   4.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  89.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0 112.0  96.0  91.0  67.0  10.0  27.0  20.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0  -4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        3.2%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.8%       23.8%       19.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.2%        9.4%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        8.9%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        8.9%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.7%       21.1%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%       11.8%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.9%        6.3%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       27.5%       15.1%       21.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 SH072024 240123 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  24.4  27.6  31.2  28.3  27.7  17.2  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0  -4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%