Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240123 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    153.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  28.5  29.9  34.2  24.6  25.6  20.5  24.6  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  77.0  74.0  67.0  44.0  32.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  84.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  76.0  75.0 109.0  13.0   6.0  -3.0  43.0  F  N  N  F  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.2%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       14.7%       23.3%       19.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%        9.5%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        8.8%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        8.8%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       21.1%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h       10.5%       11.1%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%        6.0%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h       15.9%       11.0%       13.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 SH072024 240123 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    153.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  28.5  29.9  34.2  24.6  25.6  20.5  24.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%