Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    153.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  28.1  27.9  23.9  23.8  24.1  26.5  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  75.0  67.0  57.0  44.0  46.0  18.8   6.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  92.7  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  88.0  77.0  80.0  23.0  11.0  35.0  66.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       14.5%       10.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.4%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.8%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       14.2%       10.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%        9.2%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        3.9%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h       17.1%        7.1%       12.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 SH072024 240123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    153.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  28.1  27.9  23.9  23.8  24.1  26.5  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%