Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    153.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  30.1  24.3  19.9  23.1  21.0  25.2  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  71.0  57.0  46.0  32.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7  84.6  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  77.0  80.0  29.0  17.0  -3.0  43.0  40.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       12.3%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.4%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        3.9%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.9%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       11.7%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        6.4%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        2.8%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        4.4%        5.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 SH072024 240123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    153.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  30.1  24.3  19.9  23.1  21.0  25.2  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%