Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    153.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  23.1  21.1  28.1  25.2  31.6  24.4  18.9  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  55.0  40.0  38.0  13.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  91.2  78.0  81.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  32.0   7.0   6.0  30.0  41.0  65.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  65.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   9.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       13.7%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        4.8%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.7%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        4.7%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%        9.8%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        3.1%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        2.8%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 SH072024 240124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    153.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  23.1  21.1  28.1  25.2  31.6  24.4  18.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  65.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   9.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%