Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    150.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  30.6  28.9  24.6  36.8  26.7  16.2  22.2  N  U  N  N  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  46.0  38.0  11.0  18.7  20.1  21.5  22.9  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  88.0  76.1  79.3  95.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0 -11.0  -4.0  10.0  14.0  75.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  53.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  16.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        4.2%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       21.0%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       11.0%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       10.7%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       10.6%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       10.9%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        2.4%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 SH072024 240124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    150.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  30.6  28.9  24.6  36.8  26.7  16.2  22.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  53.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  16.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%