Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  25.7  23.5  20.9  22.7  18.2  16.6  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  41.0  54.0  24.0  20.8  17.6  14.4  11.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 102.9  76.0  72.7  71.1  74.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  20.0   1.0  -6.0  24.0  13.0  16.0  15.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        8.2%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       32.4%       23.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.8%       20.5%       15.2%
 35kt / 24h        8.0%       20.5%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       20.1%       11.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       18.4%       12.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.3%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        4.2%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        2.8%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        3.7%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 SH072024 240124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  25.7  23.5  20.9  22.7  18.2  16.6  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%