Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  30.1  30.6  35.7  25.7  19.9  22.0  17.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  47.0  18.0  17.5  16.4  15.3  14.2  13.1  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 100.1  78.0  66.1  69.3  78.0  95.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  28.0  -2.0   0.0  26.0  14.0  22.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   8.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        4.8%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       10.1%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        4.4%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%        4.4%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        4.4%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        4.5%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 SH072024 240125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  30.1  30.6  35.7  25.7  19.9  22.0  17.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   8.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%