Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70    148.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  24.5  25.2  23.4  22.0  19.8  22.5  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0  90.7  69.4  64.3  61.1  62.7  69.4  73.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0   5.0  13.0  31.0  22.0  51.0  27.0  34.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  64.0  64.0  70.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.3%       10.8%       12.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       17.6%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.9%       11.2%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       11.2%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       10.8%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       11.1%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 SH072024 240125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70    148.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  24.5  25.2  23.4  22.0  19.8  22.5  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  64.0  64.0  70.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%