Rapid Intensification Guidance SH072024 240125 18UTC Storm Located at : -20.20 144.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.8 27.4 24.3 18.0 20.5 14.0 23.2 21.2 U N N F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.7 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.0 78.0 75.0 72.2 75.0 84.3 93.0 96.6 N N U U U N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 7.0 20.0 18.0 12.0 17.0 28.0 59.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 61.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 64.0 68.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 2.0 16.0 7.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.22 SH072024 240125 18UTC Storm Located at : -20.20 144.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.