Rapid Intensification Guidance SH072024 240126 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.20 143.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.1 22.1 16.1 18.5 16.4 15.8 22.3 17.4 N N F N F F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.0 83.6 80.8 79.4 82.2 85.0 86.5 83.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 28.0 15.0 12.0 20.0 23.0 39.0 20.0 U U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 62.0 69.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 69.0 67.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 8.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 N U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.80 SH072024 240126 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.20 143.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.