Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240128 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10    142.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  34.3  28.3  26.4  29.4  20.1  22.7  12.8  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7  96.1  91.5  85.8  80.4  80.4  85.8  96.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   8.0  27.0  15.0  33.0   6.0  11.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.08

 SH072024 240128 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10    142.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.