Rapid Intensification Guidance SH072024 240128 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.50 142.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.40 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.6 23.6 23.5 27.8 20.1 19.1 21.1 12.8 U N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.6 91.5 87.2 83.0 80.4 83.0 88.6 96.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 12.0 12.0 22.0 35.0 21.0 23.0 7.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 61.0 58.0 57.0 64.0 61.0 59.0 N N N U U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -2.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.84 SH072024 240128 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.50 142.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.