Rapid Intensification Guidance SH072024 240128 12UTC Storm Located at : -21.50 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 20.0 25.4 25.9 19.4 22.6 14.2 17.3 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 93.0 88.6 85.8 83.0 84.4 90.0 94.6 99.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 21.0 28.0 39.0 14.0 16.0 12.0 23.0 U U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 57.0 58.0 57.0 54.0 62.0 61.0 62.0 N U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 -1.0 9.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.76 SH072024 240128 12UTC Storm Located at : -21.50 141.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.