Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240201 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  23.2  20.2  18.2  20.3  19.9  25.3  25.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  41.0  12.0  79.0  51.0  20.8  10.4   0.0  U  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 103.0  79.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  26.0  14.0   2.0  29.0  32.0  24.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  51.0  47.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       13.1%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.0%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        4.6%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.6%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       19.3%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%       10.1%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        6.0%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        8.1%        8.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.64

 SH072024 240201 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  23.2  20.2  18.2  20.3  19.9  25.3  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  51.0  47.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%