Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240201 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    139.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  19.9  20.9  21.5  17.2  18.3  21.5  27.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0   4.0  67.0  35.0  21.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 118.6  96.0  75.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  13.0   7.0  26.0  24.0  25.0  16.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   3.0  -6.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       17.9%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        7.5%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        7.0%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        7.0%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%       27.2%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.7%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%       12.9%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        8.6%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%        9.8%        9.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.62

 SH072024 240201 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30    139.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  19.9  20.9  21.5  17.2  18.3  21.5  27.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  47.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   3.0  -6.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%