Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH072024 240201 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  20.9  24.0  28.0  25.7  25.0  18.2  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0  79.0  79.0  67.0  51.0  28.0  14.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 104.8  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0   6.0  29.0  54.0  -9.0  25.0  -8.0  26.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  48.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       10.0%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       11.8%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        6.3%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        2.9%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%        6.5%        8.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.54

 SH072024 240201 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  20.9  24.0  28.0  25.7  25.0  18.2  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  48.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%